預(yù)測(cè)：2017 年五大熱門技術(shù)排名，云安全占榜首 | 雙語(yǔ)

核心提示：研究機(jī)構(gòu) Nucleus Research 指出，云安全、AI、IOT 等五大技術(shù)將成為 2017 年熱門話題。

在一份新報(bào)告中，研究機(jī)構(gòu) Nucleus Research 確定了今年的熱門技術(shù)主題：AI，物聯(lián)網(wǎng)，安全和供應(yīng)鏈應(yīng)用將在 2017 年變得更加集中且可實(shí)施。

一、云安全
根據(jù) Nucleus Research 的最新一期預(yù)測(cè)，企業(yè)和 IT 部門曾相信能提供比公共云更安全的本地部署環(huán)境，但現(xiàn)在這類想法已不復(fù)存在。

事實(shí)上，一語(yǔ)成讖，該機(jī)構(gòu)將這種衰落描述成為「可怕的死亡正在發(fā)生」。分析師團(tuán)隊(duì)在 10 月 19 日發(fā)布的「2017 年十大預(yù)測(cè)報(bào)告」中寫道：「明年，幾乎不會(huì)有哪個(gè)人會(huì)認(rèn)為本地部署安全具有一定的優(yōu)越性?！?/p>

這個(gè)榜單由 Nucleus 的 Seth Lippincott，Anne Moxie，Barbara Peck，Brent Kinner，Moira Smalley 和 Rebecca Wettemann 共同撰寫。他們承認(rèn)，機(jī)構(gòu)分析師在去年做出了相同的預(yù)測(cè)，目前這個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)還沒(méi)有成真。

然而，分析師寫道，云提供商在云安全方面投入的精力遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)了本地部署部門的預(yù)估。他們不提云服務(wù)供應(yīng)商應(yīng)如何設(shè)計(jì)一個(gè)更加統(tǒng)一的環(huán)境，并維護(hù)幾款操作系統(tǒng)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)副本，這與企業(yè) IT 商店中典型的萬(wàn)能軟件不同。

盡管如此，分析師們?cè)?2017 年的結(jié)論中清楚地表明：客戶數(shù)據(jù)「在本地部署的云端能得到更好的保護(hù)」。他們寫道：「甚至是堅(jiān)信本地部署的 IT 部門也會(huì)妥協(xié)，承認(rèn)他們比不上云供應(yīng)商提供的安全性。

二、人工智能
就人工智能而言，供應(yīng)商必須仔細(xì)審查，以確定他們是否真的切實(shí)可行。2016 年新技術(shù)的報(bào)告不斷涌現(xiàn)，新的 AI 系統(tǒng)也變得觸手可及，但能力的落實(shí)卻遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)跟不上這類學(xué)術(shù)報(bào)告的遞進(jìn)。

Nucleus 分析師指出，新版 HBO 電視劇《西方世界》，或老版電視科幻小說(shuō)系列《人類》中出現(xiàn)的 AI 系統(tǒng)，代表著許多人現(xiàn)在所認(rèn)為的 AI 系統(tǒng)未來(lái)所具有的能力。

「在實(shí)踐中，AI 遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有達(dá)到它的潛力，」他們警告。實(shí)際提供 AI 技術(shù)的供應(yīng)商將它連接到機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)和某種形式的人機(jī)界面，包括音頻，視覺(jué)和自然語(yǔ)言。

谷歌 DeepMind 開(kāi)發(fā)的人工智能系統(tǒng) AlphaGo 圍棋戰(zhàn)勝世界冠軍李世石，同時(shí)，IBM 的人工智能「沃森」在 Jeopardy 競(jìng)賽節(jié)目中擊敗了人類選手！這個(gè)勝利讓我們看到了強(qiáng)大的 AI 系統(tǒng)可以走得更遠(yuǎn)。但在科幻小說(shuō)和實(shí)際情景中，AI 技術(shù)卻存在著「顯著的差距」。

根據(jù)報(bào)告，「2017 年將是關(guān)于哪些供應(yīng)商真正能夠開(kāi)發(fā) AI 技術(shù)，并將其納入到他們的應(yīng)用程序的一年」。

三、第三方咨詢
Nucleus 分析師還預(yù)測(cè)，對(duì)于大型企業(yè)軟件廠商，如 SAP 和 Oracle，其第三方咨詢將在 2017 年成為更重要的因素，并擴(kuò)展到輔助角色。盡管 Oracle 受到訴訟拖累，但第三方咨詢公司，如 Rimini Street 和 TomorrowNow（2005 年被 SAP 收購(gòu)）將繼續(xù)發(fā)揮作用，并持續(xù)發(fā)展。

在未來(lái)，這些公司不僅將為一組應(yīng)用程序提供支持，而且還將扮演者客戶合作伙伴的角色，幫助客戶找到軟件采和用其方式的新來(lái)源。

分析師寫道，第三方支持傾向于將每年遺留軟件的維護(hù)成本降低 50％，這部分成本是原始供應(yīng)商會(huì)收取的費(fèi)用。公司需要節(jié)省出在云端開(kāi)發(fā)下一個(gè)項(xiàng)目的費(fèi)用。

四、物聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)
雖然物聯(lián)網(wǎng)在過(guò)去的一年一直是人們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)，但分析師發(fā)現(xiàn)，2017 年將標(biāo)志著它走下「光輝」的神壇，最終成為影響基本概念的另一個(gè)核心企業(yè)系統(tǒng)。

制造業(yè)，農(nóng)業(yè)，石油和天然氣的公司已經(jīng)實(shí)施了某種形式的物聯(lián)網(wǎng)。分析師預(yù)測(cè)，從早期實(shí)施中獲得的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)將使物聯(lián)網(wǎng)更有可能進(jìn)入其他更多的行業(yè)。報(bào)告中還指出，「物聯(lián)網(wǎng)應(yīng)該值得期待，不應(yīng)該再被認(rèn)為是一種新奇的事物」。

五、供應(yīng)鏈技術(shù)升級(jí)
在另一個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)中，Nucleus 分析師表示 2017 年嵌入供應(yīng)鏈的機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)和人工智能系統(tǒng)將自動(dòng)檢測(cè)和糾正交付過(guò)程中的錯(cuò)誤。從過(guò)去的錯(cuò)誤中學(xué)習(xí)的算法將有助于糾正出現(xiàn)的錯(cuò)誤。

以前，供應(yīng)鏈供應(yīng)商試圖提供端到端流程的可視化，但他們現(xiàn)在急于嘗試建立自我糾正措施，使供應(yīng)鏈不受抓取錯(cuò)誤的供應(yīng)鏈管理者的牽制，在過(guò)去，這種過(guò)程是可見(jiàn)的。

以上是 Nucleus Research 對(duì) 2017 年五大 IT 技術(shù)排名預(yù)測(cè)。

英文原文：

Cloud Security, AI, IoT Make List Of Hot Technologies For 2017

By?Charles Babcock

In a new report, Nucleus Research identifies which of this year’s hot tech topics — including AI, IoT, security, and supply chains applications — will become even more focused and implementable in 2017.
Those enterprises and IT departments that believe they are maintaining a more secure environment on-premises than the public cloud provides are a dying breed, according to the latest round of predictions from Nucleus Research.

In fact, the research firm described the decline in more apocalyptic terms: A great die-off is occurring. “The last believers in the superiority of on-premises security will follow the dinosaurs into the annals of history” next year, its analyst team wrote in its “Top 10 Predictions for 2017” report, released Oct. 19.
The list was compiled by Seth Lippincott, Anne Moxie, Barbara Peck, Brent Kinner, Moira Smalley, and Rebecca Wettemann at Nucleus. The firm’s analysts made the same prediction last year, they acknowledge, and it hasn’t come true yet.

Nevertheless, the superior investment in security made by cloud providers “far outstrips what on-premises systems could hope to deliver,” the analysts wrote. They made no mention of how cloud service suppliers design a more uniform environment and maintain a few standard copies of operating systems, instead of having one of everything, as is often typical in an enterprise IT shop.

Still, the analysts are clear in their conclusion for 2017: customer data “is far better protected” in the cloud that is on-premises. “Even the most die-hard on-premises true believers will emerge from their caves and admit that they can’t match the security offered by cloud vendors,” they wrote.

If that was the leading conclusion on the Top 10 list, another was that, for all the talk about artificial intelligence, vendors must be carefully scrutinized to ascertain whether they’ve really got the goods. The year 2016 was about claims of advances and new AI systems becoming available, but claims may be exceeding capabilities.

The Nucleus analysts pointed to the AI systems in the new HBO TV series,Westworld, or the older TV science fiction series, Humans, as representing what many people now think AI systems are capable of, or will be soon.

“In practice, AI is far from reaching its potential,” they warn. Vendors who actually offer AI will have it connected to machine learning and some form of human interface, whether audio, visual, or natural language.

Google’s AI system won the game of Go in March, a parallel IBM’s Watson beating human contestants in Jeopardy! The win gave a glimpse of how far powerful AI systems can go. But there’s “still a significant gap” between portrayals in science fiction and AI’s accomplishments in practical settings on the ground.

“2017 will be about which vendors are truly able to develop it and incorporate it into their applications,” according to the report.

The Nucleus analysts also predicted that third-party support for major enterprise software, such SAP and Oracle, will become a more important factor in 2017 and expand into auxiliary roles. Despite being the target of suits by Oracle, third-party support firms such as Rimini Street andTomorrowNow (acquired by SAP in 2005) will continue to function and thrive.

In the future, such firms will not only provide support for a set of applications, but will also act as more of a partner to its customers, helping them find new sources of software and ways to adopt it.
The third-party support tends to reduce the annual maintenance cost of legacy software by up to 50% over what the original supplier charges, the analysts wrote. Companies need that savings to develop their next project in the cloud.

While the internet of things has been in the forefront for over a year, the analysts find that 2017 will mark the year when it gets out of its “shiny object syndrome” and becomes another core enterprise system with an impact on the bottom line.

Companies in manufacturing, agriculture, and oil and gas have already implemented some form of IoT. The lessons learned from early implementations will make it more likely that IoT will creep into many other industries, they predicted. “Seeing IoT should be expected and should no longer be considered a novelty,” the report finds.

In another prediction, the Nucleus analysts said 2017 will see machine learning and artificial intelligence systems embedded in supply chains to automatically detect and correct errors in the order to delivery process. Algorithms that learn from past mistakes will help correct emerging ones as they occur.

Previously, supply chain vendors sought to provide visibility into an end-to-end process, but they’re now rushing to try to build in self-correcting measures that free the supply chain from dependence on a supply chain manager catching the error, once it’s been made visible.